Assessing measles transmission in the United States following a large outbreak in California

Seth Blumberg; Lee Worden; Wayne Enanoria; Michael Deiner; Sarah Ackley; Fengchen Liu; Daozhou Gao; Thomas Lietman; Travis Porco

doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.b497624d7043b1aecfbfd3dfda3e344a

Assessing measles transmission in the United States following a large outbreak in California

Seth Blumberg
, Lee Worden
, Wayne Enanoria
, Michael Deiner
, Sarah Ackley
, Fengchen Liu
, Daozhou Gao
, Thomas Lietman
, Travis Porco

Mathematics and Statistics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

23 Scopus citations

Abstract

The recent increase in measles cases in California may raise questions regarding the continuing success of measles control. To determine whether the dynamics of measles is qualitatively different in comparison to previous years, we assess whether the 2014-2015 measles outbreak associated with an Anaheim theme park is consistent with subcriticality by calculating maximum-likelihood estimates for the effective reproduction numbe given this year’s outbreak, using the Galton-Watson branching process model. We find that the dynamics after the initial transmission event are consistent with prior transmission, but does not exclude the possibilty that the effective reproduction number has increased.

Original language	English
Journal	PLoS Currents
Volume	7
Issue number	OUTBREAKS
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.b497624d7043b1aecfbfd3dfda3e344a
State	Published - May 7 2015

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

Effective reproduction number
Infectious diseases
Measles
Transmission chain

Access to Document

10.1371/currents.outbreaks.b497624d7043b1aecfbfd3dfda3e344a

Cite this

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AU - Enanoria, Wayne

AU - Deiner, Michael

AU - Ackley, Sarah

AU - Liu, Fengchen

AU - Gao, Daozhou

AU - Lietman, Thomas

AU - Porco, Travis

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AB - The recent increase in measles cases in California may raise questions regarding the continuing success of measles control. To determine whether the dynamics of measles is qualitatively different in comparison to previous years, we assess whether the 2014-2015 measles outbreak associated with an Anaheim theme park is consistent with subcriticality by calculating maximum-likelihood estimates for the effective reproduction numbe given this year’s outbreak, using the Galton-Watson branching process model. We find that the dynamics after the initial transmission event are consistent with prior transmission, but does not exclude the possibilty that the effective reproduction number has increased.

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Assessing measles transmission in the United States following a large outbreak in California

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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