Incorporating Flood Loss Estimation into Urban Planning and Development Scenarios

Although disaster-related economic losses continue to accelerate in the US, local hazard mitigation in many cases remains fragmented from mainstream forms of city planning. This paper demonstrates a methodological innovation for incorporating disaster resilience into community planning using an exploratory scenario planning framework. Specifically, it presents a method for pairing FEMA Hazus flood loss estimation software with Envision Tomorrow (ET), an open-source GIS-based scenario planning tool. Procedures for linking the tools include GIS geoprocessing to convert urban development scenarios into user-supplied individual building data suitable for analysis using the Hazus Flood model. To beta test its utility in practice, the integrated method was applied to a master-planned suburban development in Austin, Texas. Results illustrated how alternative development scenarios produced varying outcomes related to flood loss avoidance, reflecting the opportunity for comprehensive planning to enhance community resilience in addition to sustainability and quality of life. The paper highlights how the integrated use of tools can enable scenario planning processes that better address risk and uncertainty alongside other community development priorities.